Tuesday, October 21, 2008

14 Days Out

And still plenty of time to worry, and to fuck it all up. Bob Shrum soothes the collective Democratic anxiety:
Perhaps for Democrats, the dark night of doubt is inevitable before victory dawns. But a study of the election state by state reveals McCain has a virtually impossible tight rope walk to victory while Obama has five or six different avenues to win—some of which are veritable boulevards. Not a single one of the states won by John Kerry in 2004 is even close. In addition, Obama leads, in the Real Clear Politics average of the latest polls, in nine states won by George W. Bush in 2004, including Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada. Even in Missouri Obama has a small advantage, and he’s only slightly behind in three other Bush states. As former Reagan and Huckabee campaign manager Ed Rollins puts it, McCain has to “draw an inside straight” to win this game.
True, Shrum has never worked on a winning presidential campaign, but he's probably right. Barring something unforeseen or some massive Bradley Effect

(Knock on wood.)

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