Snap Judgments Pt. II: 'The King's Speech' vs. 'The Social Network'

STILL KINDA SLEEPY - but loving it. More snap judgments on why The King's Speech is perfectly positioned to upset The Social Network for Best Picture.

FYI - not saying that it WILL, but if it DOES, here's why:

Based on the fact that Social Network has won every single critics' award under the sun, it will - and probably should - still be considered the front-runner for Best Picture at the Oscars, even though it's tied for third (with Inception) in the nominations count with eight. Also, keep in mind that Inception was snubbed for two nods which I felt would be fairly obvious for it to grab: Director and Editing. But I digress.

Back to Social Network. Critics' prizes up the wazoo, as well as the Globe. But it got (relatively) little love from the Academy. Eight nominations is still a lot, but the real story this morning is how well True Grit did, along with the expected leader in the nominations count, The King's Speech. Meanwhile, Social Network has a not-insignificant snub to deal with in Andrew Garfield's lack of a Best Supporting Actor nomination. True, he didn't get a SAG nod, but most prognosticators felt he'd score an Oscar nod.

Much of the time, the film with the most nominations is the automatic front-runner. Not always the case, because sometimes big, bloated spectacle-style films can rack up a ton of nominations in technical categories but don't get nominated where it really counts (like in acting or writing). Think Avatar from last year: tied with eventual winner The Hurt Locker with nine nominations apiece, but it had no acting or writing nods - it was nominated for Picture, Director and a ton of technical awards, and that was it. It was dead on arrival.

This year, the film with the most nominations - The King's Speech - has a TON of love from the Academy, all across the board. It's nominated in every acting category but Best Actress (where it didn't have a nominee to push for a spot), plus writing, directing and lots of technical awards. True Grit, in a way, is almost King's Speech-lite as it's got double-digit nominations, and it's got 'em where it really counts. Social Network is a shoo-in for Aaron Sorkin's adapted screenplay, plus David Fincher's probably still got the Director prize in his back pocket and Jesse Eisenberg is nominated for Best Actor. But no Garfield is potentially worrisome. The film did get nods for Original Score and Editing, which always bode well for a Best Picture. But I think there's a real chance of an upset here.

Put simply, The King's Speech has the most nominations, strong support within the Academy, just won the Producer's Guild (PGA) top prize, is poised to win at the BAFTAs and possibly the SAG Awards - and everyone thinks the other film is a shoo-in to win.

My money is still on The Social Network, because I do think to some extent its relatively-small nomination total was unavoidable: it's a not a movie built to rack up the Oscar nods. Plus, it's the best-reviewed movie of the year, producer Scott Rudin will push it hard and it'd be a shame if the Academy didn't reward what is clearly the best American movie of the year. But there's a real path to an upset by The King's Speech, which might be the first 12-nomination, acting-writing-directing-editing nominated film in history that is still considered by many to be an underdog.

Oscar Nomination Snap Judgments

It might not be safe to judge me on these come the day of the ceremony! The disclaimer, obviously, is that it's 6 A.M. here in Los Angeles and my brain is still trying to process being awake, let alone writing for all the Internets to see.

Not too many surprises this morning, but there were a few. Here they are, along with other snap judgments regarding today's Academy Award nominations:

1. True Grit back from the dead: After being snubbed at the Globes, and with indications that past winners the Coen Bros. probably would NOT be recognized for directing, the Coen Bros. WERE recognized for directing AND the movie had the second-most nominations, with 10
2. Andrew Garfield overlooked for Best Supporting Actor in the role that is the heart of the film that is supposed to be the front-runner. I'm not saying this is a death knell by any means for The Social Network, but I can't take it as GOOD news by any means.
3. The Academy just can't bring itself to dig Christopher Nolan. The whole reason we now have 10 Best Picture nominees is because, two years, the Academy made one of its biggest snubs ever and failed to nominate Nolan's film The Dark Knight. They've nominated Inception this time around, but snubbed the Brit of a Best Director slot, something that seemed like a foregone conclusion. The Coen Bros. presumably took that slot. So the moral of the story is, in the eyes of the Academy: Coens > Nolan
4. Javier Bardem! The former winner (for a Coen Bros. film), in a bit of an upset, won a Best Actor nomination for his role in Biutiful. It's the first time ever that a leading actor nominee's performance was entirely in Spanish.
5. Hailee Steinfeld's nom is Michelle Williams' gain. Not a surprise in the least that the 14 year-old heroine of True Grit was nominated, but there had been some thinking recently that she'd get nominated as Best Actress (since she drives the movie) and not Best Supporting Actress (which she was being pushed for, because she's 14). But in the end, Supporting it was - which kept open a spot for the much-loved indie queen Michelle Williams as a Best Actress nominee for Blue Valentine, but presumably kept Mila Kunis (Black Swan) out of the Supporting race.
   
6. John Hawkes for Best Supporting Actor: The Winter's Bone actor presumably grabbed Andrew Garfield's spot.
7. Jacki Weaver for Best Supporting Actress: The veteran Australian actress duplicated her Golden Globes nod by getting nominated for her chilling turn in Animal Kingdom. Largely expected in many quarters, but it's still somewhat of a coup considering her film is probably the least-seen of any nominee in a major category (acting, directing, writing, picture).

In the end, what I'm most interested in is the fact that The Social Network got "only" eight nominations, which puts it in third place behind The King's Speech with 12 and True Grit (!) with 10. Granted, Social Network is not a movie designed to get tons of Oscar nominations, whereas King's Speech or True Grit are - because they can rack up nods in the technical categories like art direction, costumes, etc. But I did get somewhat of a sense that, if Social Network is to cap off awards season with a Best Picture win, it will need to have a strong core of support within the Academy, because judging from the nominations alone the voters seem to be a bit ambivalent about it. Considering the fact that it's won almost everything up to this point, it's at least one of two front-runners (along with King's Speech; 10 nominations notwithstanding, I don't think True Grit is winning). But when you throw into the mix the fact that King's Speech got 12 nominations, just won the Producer's Guild prize for Best Picture, blew everyone out of the water at the BAFTAs (I know, they're British) AND the fact that Social Network is third among most-nominated films (with a not-insignificant snub in Andrew Garfield), you begin to get the feeling that Social Network's support within the Academy might be a little shakier than previously thought.

It's going to take a bit more than expected for the Academy to crown "the Facebook movie," especially when a heart-warming, old-fashioned piece of (British!) entertainment is sitting there for the taking - along with the Coen Bros., now firmly entrenched in the establishment, as a very dark horse.

My Predictions (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

I'll come up with a list fo' real closer to the actual ceremony, but here's how it looks to me so far:

Picture - Slumdog Millionaire
Director - Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
These two strike me as "in the bag," or as "in the bag" as a part-English/part-Hindi indie Bollywood film with no movie stars can be.

Actor - Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Benjamin Button has the most nominations, but Brad Pitt is not going to win. Richard Jenkins wins by beating out Clint to get nominated. Frank Langella could steal it, I suppose, but I don't think so. So it's between Mickey and Sean Penn. I don't buy the talk that "the Academy doesn't like Mickey Rourke, so they'll give it to Sean Penn." The Academy doesn't like Sean Penn, either. What they do like is a comeback.

Actress - Kate Winslet, Rev... excuse me, The Reader
Well, up until this morning, everyone thought Kate Winslet would win for Revolutionary Road. She didn't get nominated for that; instead, it's The Reader... which seems to have an awful lot of support from the Academy, so I would bet that Kate finally wins her long-overdue Oscar this year.

Supporting Actor - Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
I suppose Heath is still the front-runner here, but the lack of support for TDK in general strikes me as somewhat ominous. Also, there could be a backlash (maybe there already IS a backlash against TDK amongst the Academy) against giving it to him, for reasons I need not elaborate.

Supporting Actress - I Doubt that I have any idea what will happen here
Two Doubt chicks, the lovely Taraji P. Henson, a former nominee in Penelope Cruz and a former winner (in this category) in Marisa Tomei. My guess? A toss-up between Penelope Cruz and Amy Adams.

Rebellion Over "The Reader"

And, to be fair, some of the other nominees and non-nominees as well.

There seems to be a surprising amount of disagreement among the Aint-It-Cool community as to whether or not TDK was worthy of a Best Picture nomination (for the record, I believe it was), but there seems to be a general consensus that this year's nominees flat-out stink ("uninteresting," "boring," etc.).

Just Remembered...

In response to a commenter (Mr. or Mrs. Anonymous), as well as my own mistake, The Dark Knight was produced by Warner Bros., not The Weinstein Co.

So, I return again to my theory that The Reader's multiple nominations may have been due to the annual big ad blitz by The Weinstein Co... which is a shame, because a nomination for TDK would have been awesome and well-deserved - and would have (for once) lifted the Oscar ratings out of the cellar in which they currently dwell.

Open Question

How much of The Reader's success today was due to the fact that it was a relatively typical Oscar movie (aka Holocaust), and how much was due to the fact that it had the wizardly Weinsteins behind its marketing operation?

For The Ages

In the vein of How Green Was My Valley beating out Citizen Kane for Best Picture in 1941, the 81st Annual Academy Awards will always be remembered as the time The Reader pooped on The Dark Knight's chances to make history.

THE LIST (Finally)

Thanks to Danlly, the complete list of Oscar nominees can be found here.

Benjamin Button - 13 nominations
Slumdog - 10 nominations
The Dark Knight - 8 nominations, but only one big one (Heath)

A Better List

Can be found here. Courtesy of The Envelope. Still not complete though.

Oscar Noms: (The Beginnings of) A List

Here's an incomplete list from Variety. The full list - with all the "other" awards outside of the big ones - should be up SOMEWHERE soon.

Benjamin Button leads the way with 13 nominations - though I'd actually be surprised if it WINS Best Picture.

Oscar Nominations (Update)

All Things Fangirl tells me (since I was apparently too tired to notice) that Kate Winslet's nomination in the Best Actress category was for The Reader, and NOT for Revolutionary Road.

If you'll recall, Winslet was being pushed - hard - for The Reader, only in the Supporting category.

So, this morning, the Academy has unexpectedly taken everything we thought we knew about the Oscar nominations and shoved it back into our face with a note that says "If you do nothing else, watch The Reader."

Somewhere, Sid Ganis is cackling.

Oscar Nominations: Wha Happened???

Well, this is probably the first time since 2003 (when Fernando Meirelles was nominated for City of God and Keisha Castle-Hughes got a nod for Whale Rider) that I can remember being this shocked at the Oscar nominations.

Quick thoughts:

1. Where the hell did The Reader come from? It got a lot of (relative) love from the Globes, but the HFPA has like 100 people in it. That it was nominated for Best Picture - over films like Doubt and The Dark Knight - is shocking.
2. Very disappointing - though not entirely surprising - that The Dark Knight got snubbed for Best Picture. In the end, the buzz faded away, and the Academy couldn't bring itself to nominate an action movie.
3. Lots of acting surprises - Melissa Leo for Best Actress, Michael Shannon in the Supporting category and, in what was the biggest surprise BY FAR, Richard Jenkins nabbing a Best Actor nomination for The Visitor.
4. How weird is it that The Reader got nominated for Picture and Director but not for Kate Winslet's performance?
5. The Academy apparently loved the performances in Doubt (all four of them got nominated). Can any of them win?
6. Milk made quite a comeback after being almost completely snubbed at the Globes - it got nods for Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor (Sean Penn) and Supporting Actor (Josh Brolin).
7. Big disappointment for Sally Hawkins, who did not get a nomination for her Globe-winning performance in Happy-Go-Lucky. Melissa Leo grabbed the spot that conceivably would have been hers.
8. Taraji P. Henson was amazing in Benjamin Button and I'm glad she was nominated.
9. With the severe lack of love for The Dark Knight, is Heath still the front-runner to win Supporting Actor?
10. This looks like this is shaping up to be another Oscars in which most of the general public hasn't seen - and, in some cases, hasn't even heard of - the major nominees.
    

Thoughts on the Globes

I know I haven't been writing very much lately, but here are some reactions to last night's Golden Globe Awards:

1. Kate Winslet has to be the front-runner for... something, right? She'll probably be nominated for both Revolutionary Road (Best Actress) and The Reader (Best Supporting Actress), though it's highly unlikely she'll WIN for both (no one has ever done that). But which one is she more likely to win come Oscar time? My bet would be on Revolutionary Road, but who knows?
2. Somehow, someway, Heath Ledger has to now be the favorite to win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars. I think the only thing that could derail him at this point would be some kind of backlash if it's seen like he's only the front-runner because he died. This is, of course, ludicrous, because he's amazing - and that's not strong enough of a word - in the film, but there are definitely people who will think that.
3. I've gotta feel like Mickey Rourke is the favorite for Best Actor at the Oscars. Oscar loves a comeback, Frank Langella just doesn't seem to have the support and Sean Penn already won not too long ago.
4. I get the feeling that Benjamin Button (0-for-5) has lost some momentum.
5. I get the feeling that Slumdog Millionaire (4-for-4) has gained some momentum.
6. Having Blake Lively present Best Television Series (Drama) was really weird. I actually like Blake Lively (and Gossip Girl) a lot, but the 10:45 PM awards slot should be given to someone considerably more seasoned. Tom Cruise presenting Best Picture (Drama) was an excellent move; he was probably the biggest star in the room. Tom Hanks would have fit well in that vein. But Blake Lively on at 10:45? Doesn't gel.
7. I love Kate Winslet.
8. I looooooove Kate Winslet.
9. Since The Dark Knight and Wall-E weren't nominated, I'm glad Slumdog won Best Picture. I would have been happy with Benjamin Button too.
10. How much did NBC pay Tom Brokaw to make him shlep out there?
    

Karger's Take

Is here. Always invaluable. He brings up a point I COMPLETELY overlooked:

Milk! No Best Picture nomination!! And no nomination for anyone other than Sean Penn in the absolute powerhouse Best Actor (Drama) category!!!

I imagine that Josh Brolin, with acclaimed performances in Milk and W., is feeling somewhat disappointed this morning.

He doesn't like the Tom Cruise nomination, because it's at the expense of more deserving guys from dramas, which is probably true, but he WAS very, very good. In a ridiculous-stupid-humor kinda way. But good.

Golden Globe Nominations Announced

And here they are:

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott-Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Javier Bardem, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell, In Bruges
James Franco, Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand, Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
David Hare, The Reader
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Clint Eastwood, Changeling
James Newton Howard, Defiance
A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Hans Zimmer, Frost/Nixon

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
"Down to Earth," WALL-E
"Gran Torino," Gran Torino
"I Thought I Lost You," Bolt
"Once in a Lifetime," Cadillac Records
"The Wrestler," The Wrestler

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Dexter, Showtime
House, Fox
In Treatment, HBO
Mad Men, AMC
True Blood, HBO

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY
30 Rock, NBC
Californication, Showtime
Entourage, HBO
The Office, NBC
Weeds, Showtime

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Gabriel Byrne, In Treatment
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House
Jonathan Rhys Meyers, The Tudors

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Sally Field, Brothers & Sisters
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
January Jones, Mad Men
Anna Paquin, True Blood
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Steve Carell, The Office
Kevin Connolly, Entourage
David Duchovny, Californication
Tony Shalhoub, Monk

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Christina Applegate, Samantha Who?
America Ferrera, Ugly Betty
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Debra Messing, The Starter Wife
Mary Louise-Parker, Weeds

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Eileen Atkins, Cranford
Laura Dern, Recount
Melissa George, In Treatment
Rachel Griffiths, Brothers & Sisters
Dianne Wiest, In Treatment

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
Denis Leary, Recount
Jeremy Piven, Entourage
Blair Underwood, In Treatment
Tom Wilkinson, John Adams

Thoughts on "Slumdog Millionaire"

I finally saw the film tonight, and here's my reaction to it:

1. I liked it, even though I missed the first half-hour (long story).
2. Danny Boyle knows what he's doing.
3. Not surprisingly, the part of Bombay that they show in the movie seems like an AWFUL place to live.
4. The Taj Mahal sequence was hilarious.
5. Best Picture? Really? Maybe I should see it again the whole thing through.

What do you guys think?

Awards Preview: "The Reader"

Guys, like just about every other movie, I didn't see The Reader.

This is the 10th out of 10 films I have previewed for awards season, and I actually know nothing about it. Well, I saw the poster today in the movie theater, but other than that... nada.

The only thing I can say about The Reader is that it's possible Kate Winslet's performance takes away possible votes from her performance in Revolutionary Road, leaving her deprived of a nomination. Apparently, however, Weinstein Co. is pushing her as supporting actress for this film, a move which seems kinda silly, since she's the star of the movie.

Sorry for being a half-assed d-bag, but I'm in the process of making a midnight snack. Priorities, people.

Golden Globe Nominations Tomorrow

Brooke Shields, Elizabeth Banks, Terrence Howard and Rainn Wilson will announce the nominations tomorrow morning. Quite an eclectic group!

Awards Preview: "Australia"

The Golden Compass. The Invasion. The Interpreter. Cold Mountain. Bewitched.

All Nicole Kidman movies that flopped in some way, shape or form. Will Australia be any different?

Well, Oprah liked it. But what the heck does that mean? Dave Karger doesn't think it's a serious contender for any of the major awards. And the movie is practically nowhere to be seen on Buzzmeter, save the Original Screenplay category.

Look guys, I think there is a Nicole Kidman curse (see the list of movies above), so therefore this movie has to tank in some way. And I am on record as saying that Australia will be the Flop of the Year.

I think Karger is on to something when he says that all this movie can reasonably expect is a Screenplay nod and maybe some artsy nominations (like Art Direction and Costumes). Other than that, though, uh-uh.

Maybe the HFPA will feel generous and give it a Best Picture (Drama) nomination. But that'll be it. Bummer, Baz.

Awards Preview: "Revolutionary Road"

Kate Winslet. Leonardo DiCaprio. Sam Mendes? Is there any way Revolutionary Road won't get at least a few nominations?

More importantly, will this finally be the year that Kate Winslet - five nominations and zero wins - finally wins an Oscar? Gold Derby thinks so.

Keep in mind that Winslet may get her votes split between her role in this film and her starring performance in The Reader, another movie generating some buzz.

Guys, I'm tired. And I'm having trouble linking to people who have actually seen this movie. So I'm just going to throw this out there:

FEARLESS PREDICTION:
Kate Winslet will finally win an Oscar, and she will win it for this movie.

Brendan agrees with me on this.

And since this write-up is so short, take a look at the Revolutionary Road trailer. It seems like it's a 50's version of American Beauty. That can only be a good thing, right? I mean, I'll see it. Eventually.