Two Years In

It's Toddler Time in our nation's capital. Barack Obama's presidency turns two years old at exactly 12 EST today. While those in the Tea Party would call it the "Terrible Twos," the reality of his presidency is, I think, a bit more complicated. What have we learned about President Obama & Co. in his first 24 months as commander-in-chief?

1. Guantanamo Bay is still open, and its closure is now a year behind schedule. I think the chances of Martian terrorists invading the U.S. are higher than Obama ever being able to close the Cuban detention center.
2. Health Care Reform - good or bad, yes or no, "socialist" or not, the issue - and the hyperbolic passions it inspires on both sides of the political spectrum - is the signature issue of this presidency, and it may remain that way for quite some time.
3. For all their successes during the 2008 campaign, the Obama marketing guys seem to have done a pretty poor job in the White House thus far. If you cute through the bullshit, this president can actually boast a string of accomplishments: he pulled the economy back from the abyss, saved the American auto industry, isolated a terrible regime in Iran, passed landmark health care legislation, repealed DADT, won a Nobel Peace Prize and has remarkably stayed roughly around 50% approval with the country mired in 10% unemployment for two years - yet until recently the prevailing narrative has been largely focused on how weak and ineffective Obama's presidency has been. Paging the "HOPE" and "CHANGE" people - where have you guys been the past two years? Time to get that mojo back for 2012.
   
4. In his own twisted, torturous way, Obama has proven himself to be a legitimate fighter for gay rights. He repealed Don't Ask Don't Tell, and he did it legislatively - by far the most effective way in the long run. Despite all the bullshit leading up to it (and the bullshit that persists, like his Department of Justice continuing to defend DOMA in the courts), he deserves a lot of credit for this. As does, oddly enough, Joe Lieberman. But like, let's not get crazy or anything.
5. Obama the campaigner? Oratorically awesome and endlessly inspiring. Obama the president? Kinda professorial and boring at press junkets. BUT: Dude can still give a great speech. Whomever is the Republican nominee in 2012, you better watch yourself on the campaign trail.
6. Hillary Clinton: O's former rival for the presidency is doing a great job as Secretary of State.
7. John McCain: O's former rival for the presidency is a bitter, petty shell of his former self who has compromised everything he once stood for to settle political scores. In English, this type of person is known as a DOUCHEBAG.
8. March Madness is more fun with Obama as president because ESPN obsesses over his bracket.
9. Partly because of the economy, partly because of a black president, partly because they're crazy, Tea Party madness is in full swing and will make or break the next two years for Obama - it'll either totally sabotage his presidency or give him a chance to truly shine, rise above it all and be the kind of president he always wanted to be (I'm betting on the latter).
10. Dude ain't no socialist.

What a long, strange trip it's been. I'm proud to say that, even after voting for this man twice (first in the primary, then in the general) I have remained healthily skeptical of him as much as possible. I've applauded when appropriate, but I have disagreed with him on a great number of things. He has compromised on some promises, but delivered on others.

The general state of the country still isn't great, and in my most pessimistic moods I fear it never will be again. One man with two years on the job does not constitute a miracle maker by any means. But I'd rather this guy be president than anyone else. Just take a quick look at the political landscape and you can see all the losers, particularly amongst the Republicans, who would vie to take his place - Palin, Romney, Huckabee, etc. Barack Obama remains the guy for this job - even if "Hope" and "Change" often feels like a distant dream from way back when (which, of course, it is).

Burning for Bush (The Other One)

Peter Robinson reeeeeeeeeeeeeally wants Jeb Bush to run for Senate in Florida:

The first day he walked into the chamber, Bush would already possess a more impressive record of accomplishment--not talk, accomplishment--than all but a few of his new colleagues. For that matter, his record would compare favorably with those of Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and nearly everyone else in Washington, including President Barack Obama.

I get the swipe at Obama, as well as the one at Hillary. But, if you think about it, it's not really fair to compare governors to senators. Seriously. And excuse me but, even if you want to play that little game, how many governors (or former governors) across America have records that compare favorably with Joe Biden?

Um, gee, let me think: no one. The guy's been in the Senate for 35 freaking years, and has built up a resume colored primarily with achievements in foreign policy, not to mention other goodies like the crime bill, as well as an election to the vice presidency. This is not to take anything away from Jeb Bush, who is LEAGUES ahead of his nitwit older brother, but seriously - there's no point in comparing apples to oranges.

"Senator Jeb Bush" would be okay with me if he promised to:

1. change his last name, and
2. promise never ever to run for president, and
3. prohibit George W. from leaving the state of Texas.

Other than that, I think the federal government in this country has had enough of the Bush family for at least a generation. Let George P. run for something in 20 or 30 years. Until then, we're done.

Aw, Shucks

Bill Clinton is nixing the idea of him replacing Hillary in the Senate.

As I wrote last night, I thought the idea of "Senator Bill Clinton" was intriguing and potentially beneficial to both Clintonistas and Obamans alike. I still continue to think that, and must confess a bit of disappointment that it doesn't appear like it will happen.

It was always a long shot, but a boy can dream, can't he?

So who will Hillary's replacement be? Caroline Kennedy, maybe? Andrew Cuomo? Rosie O'Donnell? I hear she's out of a job.

Thoughts on Obama's Nat'l Security Team

As expected, here's what it looks like:

Secretary of State: Hillary Clinton
Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates
Attorney General: Eric Holder
Secretary of Homeland Security: Janet Napolitano
U.N. Ambassador: Susan Rice
National Security Adviser: James Jones

Obama is taking questions now at his press conference in Chicago, and I have a couple observations:

1. Obama is in charge. For all the talk from some in the media that Hillary would be running some kind of rebellious shadow government from the State Department, Obama is clearly the one in command. He is supremely confident, though not in the dumb Bush "I'm the decider!" kinda way. He's brought in a bunch of pretty hawkish people, as well as a woman who routinely belittled his accomplishments and abilities (and vice versa). But that's all water under the bridge now. And Obama is clearly the guy on top.
2. With the introduction of the Attorney General as part of the national security team, Obama is signaling that he believes Bush's extravagant abuses of power and destruction of our national and international justice systems have harmed our national security. This is a sign that Guantanamo will close - maybe not on January 20, or even in the first year, but it will close. I was also impressed with Holder's vows to go after criminals "on the street" and also "in the board room." No more Enrons, God willing.
3. Biden recycled the beautiful line Obama used in one of the debates, about America leading "not just by the example of its power, but by the power of its example." Beautifully worded, and so, so right.
4. Jim Jones looked kinda cranky.
5. Hillary showed humble and respectful deference to Obama - "Thank you, Mr. President-elect" and thanked the people here in New York for adopting her and sending her to the Senate. It was a classy touch.
   

It's Hillary

She'll be announced as Secretary of State on Monday.

Sen. John Warner (R-VA), for one, seems to like it.

Is it just me, or is the majority of the praise for Obama's Cabinet picks coming from Republicans?

They Met

Obama and Hillary did indeed meet yesterday in Chicago to talk about a role in his administration:

The meeting took place at Obama's transition offices in the mid-afternoon.

It did not appear on the schedule that's distributed to Clinton staff and handlers.

One knowledgeable source said that the meeting was "not an interview." The source would not elaborate.

Interesting. Keep in mind that the Obama transition has already told us not to expect any Cabinet appointments before Thanksgiving. I for one was disappointed by that, as I guess I'm just so desperate for news tidbits and information now that the campaign is over.

Hillary being named to the Cabinet, though, would be the topic du jour of several news cycles, and would certainly satisfy the media's craving for something new.

I'll tell ya one thing: it would probably push that bespectacled governor from Alaska out of the spotlight for a little while.

Don't Buy Those Hillary Exit Polls

There are some exit polls circulating that show that if Hillary Clinton had been the Democratic presidential nominee, she would have (gasp!) beaten John McCain by even more than Barack Obama did!

My advice? Don't buy it. Nate Silver, who is WAY smarter than I or anyone else could hope to be when it comes to these matters, has this to say:

If America had woken up last Tuesday morning and magically found Hillary Clinton's name on the ballot in lieu of Barack Obama, might she have won by 11 points? Perhaps. She certainly proved herself to be an exceptionally compelling candidate, even if her execution and staffing decisions were sometimes wanting.

But what would Clinton's numbers have looked like if she had actually endured ... you know ... a campaign?

Would she have handled the financial crisis with as much aplomb as Obama did? Probably. Would she have been so capable and reassuring in the debates? Almost certainly. Would she have had an easier time resonating with working class voters in places like Missouri and West Virginia? Yes.

But would she have managed the media as deftly as Obama did? Perhaps not. Would Republican attacks on Bill Clinton and Kazakhstan been as counterproductive to their cause as their effort to link Barack Obama and Bill Ayers? Maybe -- or maybe not. Would she have matched Obama's field organization and raised as much money? Doubtful.

Would her campaign have had the same steely confidence as Obama's did after the Republican convention bounce? Unlikely. Would she have delivered as strong a speech as Mr. Obama did in Denver? Iffy. Would she have catalyzed near-universal turnout in the black community? No.

These kinds of hypotheticals are ridiculous, and should not be taken seriously. Later on in his post (which I would have included here but didn't for the sake of space), Silver also mentions the most obvious thing that would have been different had Hillary been the nominee: there would have been no Sarah Palin. It is almost unfathomable that John McCain would have picked Palin as his running mate had the Democratic ticket been headed by another woman who also happened to be much smarter and much more qualified to run for national office.

Furthermore, I think that the contrast between Obama and McCain was one that worked heavily in the Democrats' favor. Obama, with his name, background and relative greenness to Washington, was a convincing agent of change and had great appeal to independents. He was the first Democrat to win independents in a generation.

Even if she had been the nominee, and even if she had won anyway, I would bet you a lot of money that there is no way in hell that Hillary Clinton would have won independents, and certainly not any significant number of Republicans. Hillary Clinton is very popular with two groups of people: women and Democrats, who are, by and large, one and the same (meaning the majority of women are Democrats, and the majority of Democrats are women).

Could Hillary have won? Probably, though no one can say for sure. Is it a certainty that she would have beaten McCain by more than Obama did? Not at all, and I dare say it's more likely that the election would have been a squeaker.