Two Years In

It's Toddler Time in our nation's capital. Barack Obama's presidency turns two years old at exactly 12 EST today. While those in the Tea Party would call it the "Terrible Twos," the reality of his presidency is, I think, a bit more complicated. What have we learned about President Obama & Co. in his first 24 months as commander-in-chief?

1. Guantanamo Bay is still open, and its closure is now a year behind schedule. I think the chances of Martian terrorists invading the U.S. are higher than Obama ever being able to close the Cuban detention center.
2. Health Care Reform - good or bad, yes or no, "socialist" or not, the issue - and the hyperbolic passions it inspires on both sides of the political spectrum - is the signature issue of this presidency, and it may remain that way for quite some time.
3. For all their successes during the 2008 campaign, the Obama marketing guys seem to have done a pretty poor job in the White House thus far. If you cute through the bullshit, this president can actually boast a string of accomplishments: he pulled the economy back from the abyss, saved the American auto industry, isolated a terrible regime in Iran, passed landmark health care legislation, repealed DADT, won a Nobel Peace Prize and has remarkably stayed roughly around 50% approval with the country mired in 10% unemployment for two years - yet until recently the prevailing narrative has been largely focused on how weak and ineffective Obama's presidency has been. Paging the "HOPE" and "CHANGE" people - where have you guys been the past two years? Time to get that mojo back for 2012.
   
4. In his own twisted, torturous way, Obama has proven himself to be a legitimate fighter for gay rights. He repealed Don't Ask Don't Tell, and he did it legislatively - by far the most effective way in the long run. Despite all the bullshit leading up to it (and the bullshit that persists, like his Department of Justice continuing to defend DOMA in the courts), he deserves a lot of credit for this. As does, oddly enough, Joe Lieberman. But like, let's not get crazy or anything.
5. Obama the campaigner? Oratorically awesome and endlessly inspiring. Obama the president? Kinda professorial and boring at press junkets. BUT: Dude can still give a great speech. Whomever is the Republican nominee in 2012, you better watch yourself on the campaign trail.
6. Hillary Clinton: O's former rival for the presidency is doing a great job as Secretary of State.
7. John McCain: O's former rival for the presidency is a bitter, petty shell of his former self who has compromised everything he once stood for to settle political scores. In English, this type of person is known as a DOUCHEBAG.
8. March Madness is more fun with Obama as president because ESPN obsesses over his bracket.
9. Partly because of the economy, partly because of a black president, partly because they're crazy, Tea Party madness is in full swing and will make or break the next two years for Obama - it'll either totally sabotage his presidency or give him a chance to truly shine, rise above it all and be the kind of president he always wanted to be (I'm betting on the latter).
10. Dude ain't no socialist.

What a long, strange trip it's been. I'm proud to say that, even after voting for this man twice (first in the primary, then in the general) I have remained healthily skeptical of him as much as possible. I've applauded when appropriate, but I have disagreed with him on a great number of things. He has compromised on some promises, but delivered on others.

The general state of the country still isn't great, and in my most pessimistic moods I fear it never will be again. One man with two years on the job does not constitute a miracle maker by any means. But I'd rather this guy be president than anyone else. Just take a quick look at the political landscape and you can see all the losers, particularly amongst the Republicans, who would vie to take his place - Palin, Romney, Huckabee, etc. Barack Obama remains the guy for this job - even if "Hope" and "Change" often feels like a distant dream from way back when (which, of course, it is).

The Last Week of the Campaign

In two minutes, courtesy of Slate:

Don't Buy Those Hillary Exit Polls

There are some exit polls circulating that show that if Hillary Clinton had been the Democratic presidential nominee, she would have (gasp!) beaten John McCain by even more than Barack Obama did!

My advice? Don't buy it. Nate Silver, who is WAY smarter than I or anyone else could hope to be when it comes to these matters, has this to say:

If America had woken up last Tuesday morning and magically found Hillary Clinton's name on the ballot in lieu of Barack Obama, might she have won by 11 points? Perhaps. She certainly proved herself to be an exceptionally compelling candidate, even if her execution and staffing decisions were sometimes wanting.

But what would Clinton's numbers have looked like if she had actually endured ... you know ... a campaign?

Would she have handled the financial crisis with as much aplomb as Obama did? Probably. Would she have been so capable and reassuring in the debates? Almost certainly. Would she have had an easier time resonating with working class voters in places like Missouri and West Virginia? Yes.

But would she have managed the media as deftly as Obama did? Perhaps not. Would Republican attacks on Bill Clinton and Kazakhstan been as counterproductive to their cause as their effort to link Barack Obama and Bill Ayers? Maybe -- or maybe not. Would she have matched Obama's field organization and raised as much money? Doubtful.

Would her campaign have had the same steely confidence as Obama's did after the Republican convention bounce? Unlikely. Would she have delivered as strong a speech as Mr. Obama did in Denver? Iffy. Would she have catalyzed near-universal turnout in the black community? No.

These kinds of hypotheticals are ridiculous, and should not be taken seriously. Later on in his post (which I would have included here but didn't for the sake of space), Silver also mentions the most obvious thing that would have been different had Hillary been the nominee: there would have been no Sarah Palin. It is almost unfathomable that John McCain would have picked Palin as his running mate had the Democratic ticket been headed by another woman who also happened to be much smarter and much more qualified to run for national office.

Furthermore, I think that the contrast between Obama and McCain was one that worked heavily in the Democrats' favor. Obama, with his name, background and relative greenness to Washington, was a convincing agent of change and had great appeal to independents. He was the first Democrat to win independents in a generation.

Even if she had been the nominee, and even if she had won anyway, I would bet you a lot of money that there is no way in hell that Hillary Clinton would have won independents, and certainly not any significant number of Republicans. Hillary Clinton is very popular with two groups of people: women and Democrats, who are, by and large, one and the same (meaning the majority of women are Democrats, and the majority of Democrats are women).

Could Hillary have won? Probably, though no one can say for sure. Is it a certainty that she would have beaten McCain by more than Obama did? Not at all, and I dare say it's more likely that the election would have been a squeaker.

History

Dixville Notch has spoken, and early voting has been going on for weeks. But today, November 4, the rest of the United States will go to the polls and decide who will be the next president of the United States.

This has been, on many levels, an historic election and an incredible experience to be a part of - as a political junkie, as a history buff, as an Obama supporter and volunteer and as an American. Should Obama win, the United States will have its first African-American president. Should McCain win, we will get our first female vice president in Sarah Palin.

But let's be real here: this election is, and always has been, about Barack Obama.

Whatever happens later today, Barack Obama has permanently changed the face of American politics. The skinny black guy with the funny name who is a first-term senator from Illinois
could be elected president. At this point, after two years of campaigning, it doesn't seem like such a crazy idea. But, not so long ago, it was a craaaazy idea.

Win or lose, look at where we are now. Take a step back and contemplate the magnitude of this moment. It's incredible. It's remarkable. It's better than anything Hollywood could have come up with. And it's a true story!

Later today, Barack Obama could be elected 44th president of the United States. I pray that he will win. But even if he doesn't, I am so proud to have witnessed his rise, so proud to have supported him and so proud that our country has moved so close to doing something so amazing.

This has been an incredible campaign, and a privilege to share it with all of you. Make sure you vote today, and may God - or whomever or whatever you believe in - continue to bless America.

Stupid People Alert

This morning, as I was still basking in the afterglow of the Phillies' (!) World Series championship, I got on the train to go back to the city.

I had this morning's Philadelphia Inquirer - which screamed "CHAMPS" in bright red letters on the front - in my hand as I took my seat. A middle-aged, blue collar "Joisey" guy and his wife saw the paper and said something about how they weren't able to find a copy. I explained that my parents get the paper delivered to their house, and I had just picked it up on my way out the door.

I chuckled to myself as I opened the paper, not really believing that I had just a chat with Phillies fans - strangers - the morning after their world championship.

After a few minutes went by, and I had submerged myself in the Inquirer, I overheard those same two people talking about something else that I take very seriously:

"Yeah, he was in Miami last night, saying 'I'm gonna save the world, I'm gonna save the world," the woman sneered as the men shook their heads in disgust.

"He's a scary fucking guy," the man said. "And all these stupid fucking people, these uninformed people, are gonna vote for him."

My ears immediately perked up. I know who they're talking about, I thought. They're talking about Barack Obama.

You know, it's one thing to not like the guy. That's fine. That's your right. Disagree with him all you want, hate him all you want, fear him all you want. Whatever. And, by all means, feel free to trash what he says at his rallies. But if you're going to do this, and you're going to do this LOUDLY on a 7:36 train to New York City, at least get your fucking facts right.

You see, I've been to a Barack Obama rally, and I've watched many on TV. The standard ending for his stump speech - and the one he used last night - is "We can change this country, and we can change the world." Not "I'm gonna save the world," like this idiotic woman was shrieking about.

I listened to these people spew their fury some more until finally I decided I couldn't take it anymore. I turned to them and said:

"Ma'am, with all due respect, that's not what he said."

A third guy they had been traveling with immediately whirled around, waved his hand dismissively and growled "Thank you" to me. The woman immediately shushed him, before she and her husband muttered:

"That IS what he said!"

No it wasn't. I'll say it again: crap on the guy all you want. That's your constitutional right, and I would never deprive anyone of that. But, once more, get your fucking facts right!

The tragedy of the McCain campaign has been that they have done NOTHING to stop the vicious, dangerous smears and rumors their conservative base has been peddling amongst one another. They have been enablers to a community of people who really, truly believe that the man who may be the next President is some kind of Muslim/terrorist/communist/anti-Christ/cult leader. They really believe this, and the McCain campaign has done nothing to say, "Hey, you know what? That's not true, and that's dangerous shit to be peddling. Don't say stuff like that."

These people are out there, and Lord knows the Republicans won't do anything to stop this crap. We have to defeat these people - soundly - and put an end to the disgusting ignorance that is threatening to deprive America of this moment. These people are awful, and they have been harming our country. We cannot let them win - or steal a victory - again.

The kicker in all this? After I stepped in, they stopped talking. After a while, they went at it again, albeit much more quietly than before. I still was able to hear a little bit, though, and distinctly remember this one final little sound bite:

"And you know what? It's not all George Bush's fault."

And on that note, I say: God help us all.

Gold Star Winner: October 28, 2008

Anonymous McCain Staffer

Why am I giving today's Gold Star to an anonymous McCain staffer?

Because someone in the McCain camp referred to Sarah Palin as this:

"A whack job."

It's exactly what she is, of course. Er, congrats, guys.

Al Qaeda's Endorsement of McCain

“From their perspective, a continuation of Bush policies is best for recruiting,” said Professor Nye, adding that Mr. McCain is far more likely to continue those policies.

The Truth Behind Earmarks

McCain has spent much of his campaign railing against earmarks and pork-barrel spending. By the way he goes on and on and on about it, you'd think that it was the country's biggest problem. It's not, and Matt Yglesias makes the case that McCain is missing the actual problem when it comes to earmarks:

The issue with earmarking isn’t that the money generally goes to total waste. The problem is that allocating funds for basic infrastructure or scientific research according to the relative clout of different politicians is inefficient. West Virginia and Alaska wind up with a disproportionately large amount of pork, while New York, which has a low number of Senators per capita both of whom are relatively junior, winds up with disproportionately little. It really would be better if you could take all the money spent on earmarked transportation projects and instead spend that money according to some kind of neutral formula. Similarly with scientific research projects. Reforming the process would, in this sense, be a good idea. But you shouldn’t assume that the projects funded by earmarks are per se wasteful and you certainly shouldn’t assume that procedural reform would or should naturally lead to a reduction in overall spending. In general, we spend too little on basic infrastructure and research and the case for spending more would only be made more compelling by the development of a better process for allocating resources. The National Institutes of Health, for example, is generally regarded as a well-functioning organization. But that’s not a reason to slash the NIH budget, it’s the reason NIH spending is relatively easy to gain support for.

Stupid Lieberman

Joe Lieberman is now making a point of saying that he "respects" Obama:

"When I go out, I say, 'I have a lot of respect for Sen. Obama. He's bright. He's eloquent.' Someday, I might even support him for president," Lieberman told a conference call of Connecticut reporters. "But now in the midst of this series of crises, John McCain is simply so much better prepared that that's who I am proud to support."

Lieberman also said that if McCain doesn't, "I'm going to do everything I can to be bringing people ... together across party lines to support the new president so he can succeed."

This seems like a serious change of pace, to say the least, for Lieberman to be talking about how much he likes Obama and how he could potentially support him for president down the road. Indeed, it invites questions about what might have prompted Lieberman's change of tone.

Lieberman, Lieberman. I have had about enough of Joe Lieberman. I find him to be so completely full of it that I don't even know what to say anymore.

It started with Iraq, I guess. I'll always respect a person's right to believe what he or she chooses to believe, even if it's something as toxic and terrible as the Iraq War. But Joe Lieberman is a smart guy. He ran as the Democratic nominee for VP in 2000, and it made me proud that, as the product of a Jewish family, he had ascended to such a high place in our society.

I suppose that, because I once felt some kind of affection and connection with him, I am more disgusted with him now. His continued support of McCain - and his outwardly negative treatment of Obama, no matter what he says - has enraged me. He's still a Democrat on everything but Iraq, and has decided to base his 2008 presidential endorsement entirely on the basis of foreign policy. But McCain's judgment regarding Iraq was and is so wrong, and his behavior regarding everything in general is erratic and frightening, and yet Lieberman has refused to budge.

For crying out loud, Obama now has Colin Powell, Doug Kmiec, Michael Smerconish, Christopher Buckley, Susan Eisenhower, Christopher Hitchens, Ken Adelman and God knows how many other conservatives in his corner. They all cite the same reasons: temperament and Palin. But Lieberman, stupid Lieberman, still bases his decision solely on Iraq. If you're gonna make a choice for president based on one sole criterion, fine, that's your prerogative. But if that's the case, at least get it right. And Lieberman is just flat-out wrong.

Frum's Advice

Former Bush speechwriter David Frum rails against McCain's "awful" (his words) campaign and makes the case that it is hurting the GOP's already-tenuous holds on its Senate seats up for re-election. He advises Republicans to essentially give up on the White House and devote their energies to salvaging as many Senate seats as possible:

The best bulwark for a nonpolitical finance system and a national culture of open debate will be the strongest possible Republican caucus in the Senate. And it is precisely that strength that is being cannibalized now by the flailing end of the McCain-Palin campaign.

Al Gore Syndrome

Al Gore Syndrome (n.): a condition in which the presidential candidate from a major political party fails to win his home state in the general election and that perhaps contributes to his loss in the Electoral College.

Apparently there's a poll that shows McCain losing ground in Arizona - his home state. Gore lost Tennessee in 2000 and, with it, the presidency. Could the same happen to Johnny Mac this year?

McCain's Uphill Battle in PA

"If you look at cold hard numbers, in order for McCain to win Pennsylvania, he is going to have to win at least 15% of the Democratic vote, 95% of the Republican vote and 60% of the independent vote. We believe McCain is losing independents by about 20 points right now in Pennsylvania, so he would need a 40 point swing." -David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager.

Mac Pissing Off Undecideds

A great anecdote from an undecided, formerly Republican couple in New Mexico:

"Bush has been very disappointing and I thought maybe there was some hope in McCain but quite frankly it's the same saber rattling, just a different century, and it's disappointing," said Mr. Kochansky. "I want to hear about what he can do for us middle class people. I want specific ideas. I want some specificity to a political plan. Right now it's more negative. It's what Obama's going to do to us but not what he's telling us. He votes for this package for the congressional bailout but then he blames the Democrats."

The pair also said they were surprised that the turnout for today's event, attended by less than a thousand people, was so small.

McCain is running solely on a platform of "Obama sucks," and not on his own merits. He can't; he has none. It is refreshing that people from Albuquerque to Akron seem to be embracing hope over fear this time around.

Recycling the Garbage

Josh Marshall has a great analysis of these final dark days of the McCain campaign:

As the McCain campaign staggers toward its conclusion, with electoral columns and pediments standing since 1966 buckling under their weight, the party seems to be cycling back through its history of character assassination, McCarthyism and wedge politics flimflam, only now with an desperate and parodic impotence taking the place of punishing rhetorical violence.

Southern strategy race-baiting, check! Hyper 9/11ist 'the Dems are terrorists' character assassination, check! Rep. Michelle Bachmann's neo-McCarthyite manifesto and call for a new HUAC, check! 'The Democrats want to bring socialism to America', check! Who lost Georgia? Aspirational neo-Cold Warism, check! Mix these in with a general stew of 70s-90s soft-on-crime, Dems are pedophile weirdo-freak-loser wedge politics and we've basically got the full ground covered.

It's true. It seems like, every day, the McCain camp has some new and ridiculous thing with which to smear Obama: elitist, inexperienced, celebrity, Bill Ayers, socialism... we've seen a whole litany of crap during this campaign.

But I think Marshall is right in the sense that it does feel like we've seen it all before - only, this time, the shit ain't working. McCain keeps screaming "TERRORIST!" and "SOCIALIST!" and "ELITIST!" at the top of his lungs - but all to no avail (at least thus far). There is no evidence that it is working - in fact, even more incredibly, it seems like it's hurting McCain!

If Obama wins, it will be a total repudiation of these terrible Rovian/Nixonian politics. We may soon have a Democrat in the White House, an overwhelmingly Democratic Congress and a Republican Party, beaten at their own game, out of touch and out of power. In more ways that one, this would be a wonderful thing for our country in this time of crisis.

No Picnic for Palin in the Garden State

Tom Kean, the former governor of my home state of New Jersey, thinks Palin is hurting McCain there.

I'd be inclined to agree with that. The thing with Miss Wasilla is that she appeals to one type of person: ruby red, Jesus-loving, not-serious-about-foreign-policy-or-national-security conservatives. Here's part of what Kean had to say:

"I don't know whether it's cultural, political or issue-oriented. She seems to not do well in places like New Jersey, New England and California, and very, very well when it comes to the Midwest in the south," he said. "She probably hurts in New Jersey and helps in other states."

I think it's cultural, political and issue-oriented. Palin is extremely socially conservative (almost ridiculously so), was a pure political stunt and doesn't know much about anything outside of how to run Alaska (and even that is stretching it). This is a toxic combination for New Jerseyans, who can be relative moderates fiscally and on foreign policy but are absolutely socially liberal. Remember: New Jersey is one of only five states where gay people can enter into either a civil union or marriage.

Republicans can win in New Jersey. Tom Kean is a great example. Christie Whitman's another one. And McCain in 2000 would have had a great shot, and could have been competitive this year if he had picked a running mate like Joe Lieberman or Tom Ridge, both of whom are well-known to New Jerseyans as their states are close by and share media markets with the Garden State. If you're moderate on the economy and relatively socially liberal, you can win as a Republican. But it's the cultural issues - that die-hard, no-holds-barred, fanatical obsession with the Bible over all other things - that prevent modern Republicans from winning statewide office in New Jersey (and other places in the Northeast).

For years, the Republicans have been great at exploiting the culture wars. Terrific. That gave us two terms of George W. Bush and, now, Sarah Palin. But the GOP has ceded the Northeast for a generation, and it's because of these social issues. People just aren't motivated by the psychotically conservative religious shit as much up here.

Such elitists, right?

Al Qaeda Wants McCain to Win

They say so themselves:

In an endorsement that will not be welcomed by Mr McCain's flagging campaign, the group said that if al-Qaeda wants to exhaust the USmilitarily and economically, the "impetuous" Republican presidential candidate is the better choice.

"This requires presence of an impetuous American leader such as McCain, who pledged to continue the war till the last American soldier," the message said.

"Then, al-Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming elections so that he continues the failing march of his predecessor, Bush."

There should no longer be any doubt that Obama is the candidate who is more likely to keep this country safe.

So Much for "Tightening"

The new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released tonight:

With two weeks to go until Election Day, Obama now leads his Republican rival by 10 points among registered voters, 52 to 42 percent, up from 49 to 43 percent two weeks ago.

Obama’s current lead is also fueled by his strength among independent voters (topping McCain 49 to 37 percent), suburban voters (53 to 41), Catholics (50 to 44) and white women (49 to 45).

In early September, after the Republican National Convention, McCain was ahead with independents and Catholics, and narrowly trailed Obama among suburban voters.

And what does the survey say about Palin? Well, for one thing, she has become voters' TOP CONCERN regarding the McCain candidacy. There's more:

Fifty-five percent of respondents say she’s not qualified to serve as president if the need arises, up five points from the previous poll.

In addition, for the first time, more voters have a negative opinion of her than a positive one. In the survey, 47 percent view her negatively, versus 38 percent who see her in a positive light.

That’s a striking shift since McCain chose Palin as his running mate in early September, when she held a 47 to 27 percent positive rating.

A complete and utter reversal. I would call it "stunning," but it's not, given that she possesses not one iota's worth of what it takes to serve as President or Vice President. More still:

Forty-eight percent say they have confidence in Obama serving as commander in chief, which is nearly identical to the 50 percent who said the same of McCain.

A month ago, however, just 42 percent said they were confident in Obama’s commander in chief abilities, compared with 53 percent for McCain.

A Democrat running even with a Republican on the commander-in-chief question? Oh, boy. Not good news, Johnny Mac.

There's still time left, of course - time for McCain to come back, time for us to blow it, time for a whole host of things to occur. But right now, at this moment, these numbers - and the numbers from other pollsters - look very, very good.

Cross your fingers. Don't get overconfident. Take action. Volunteer. Vote.

And hope.

Obama Phlip-Phlopping?

On the Phillies?

That's what McCain says.

Once his hometown White Sox were eliminated from the baseball playoffs, Obama decided to root for the Phillies, the favorite team of his campaign manager, David Plouffe (as well as yours truly, of course). But here's Obama in Tampa, home of the AL champions and the team that ousted the White Sox, on Monday:

“I want to just make the point I’ve said from the beginning that I am a unity candidate, bringing people together,” Obama told the crowd. “So when you see a White Sox fan showing love to the Rays, and the Rays showing some love back, you know we’re on to something right here.”

It doesn't sound to me like he's switching horses, though as usual McCain wants us to think something that's not true, even if it's something relatively trivial.

Mac Ain't Got No Ground Game

At least not according to Chuck Todd:

"There is no ground game," Joe Scarborough responded. Todd agreed, adding that Democrats were already doing better in early voting, based on ballot requests. "The ground game, it is just absent from the McCain campaign ... At this point, the only state that I feel good about for McCain is Ohio." He posited that McCain could win that state but lose the election, which would be "very frustrating to Republicans."

Let's just hope there's no GOP voter fraud (or not enough that it sways the election) and no Bradley Effect.

14 days.

Fingers crossed fingers crossed fingers crossed fingers crossed.

John W. McCain

The new Frank Rich column:

Incredibly, McCain has nakedly endorsed the Bush-Rove brand of governance in his own campaign by assembling his personal set of lobbyist cronies and Rove operatives to run it. They have not only entangled him in a welter of conflicts of interest, but they’ve furthered cynical political stunts like the elevation of Sarah Palin. At least Bush and Rove didn’t try to put an unqualified hack like, say, Alberto Gonzales half a heartbeat away from the presidency.

As if the Palin pick weren’t damning enough, McCain and his team responded to the financial panic by offering their own panicky simulation of the Bush style of crisis management in real time. Fire the S.E.C. chairman and replace him with Andrew Cuomo! Convene a 9/11 commission to save Wall Street! Don’t bail out A.I.G.! Do bail out A.I.G.! Reacting to polls and the short-term dictates of 24-hour news cycles, McCain offered as many economic-policy reboots in a month as Bush offered “Plans for Victory” during the first three years of the Iraq war.

Now McCain is trying to distract us from his humiliating managerial ineptitude by cranking up the politics of fear — another trademark Bush-Rove strategy. But the McCain camp’s quixotic effort to turn an “old washed-up terrorist” into a wedge issue as divisive as same-sex marriage is too little, too late and too tone-deaf at a time when Americans are suffering too much to indulge in 1960s culture wars. Voters want policies that might actually work rather than another pandering, cynical leader who operates mainly on the basis of his “gut” and political self-interest.