I'll come up with a list fo' real closer to the actual ceremony, but here's how it looks to me so far:
Picture - Slumdog Millionaire
Director - Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
These two strike me as "in the bag," or as "in the bag" as a part-English/part-Hindi indie Bollywood film with no movie stars can be.
Actor - Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Benjamin Button has the most nominations, but Brad Pitt is not going to win. Richard Jenkins wins by beating out Clint to get nominated. Frank Langella could steal it, I suppose, but I don't think so. So it's between Mickey and Sean Penn. I don't buy the talk that "the Academy doesn't like Mickey Rourke, so they'll give it to Sean Penn." The Academy doesn't like Sean Penn, either. What they do like is a comeback.
Actress - Kate Winslet, Rev... excuse me, The Reader
Well, up until this morning, everyone thought Kate Winslet would win for Revolutionary Road. She didn't get nominated for that; instead, it's The Reader... which seems to have an awful lot of support from the Academy, so I would bet that Kate finally wins her long-overdue Oscar this year.
Supporting Actor - Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
I suppose Heath is still the front-runner here, but the lack of support for TDK in general strikes me as somewhat ominous. Also, there could be a backlash (maybe there already IS a backlash against TDK amongst the Academy) against giving it to him, for reasons I need not elaborate.
Supporting Actress - I Doubt that I have any idea what will happen here
Two Doubt chicks, the lovely Taraji P. Henson, a former nominee in Penelope Cruz and a former winner (in this category) in Marisa Tomei. My guess? A toss-up between Penelope Cruz and Amy Adams.